The Convergence

Executive Summary: Regulatory Liability, Scarcity & The tLCAF Solution

Strategic Overview

1. Regulatory Liability

⚠️
EU 2024/2493 Mandatory MRV

The Shift: From voluntary CO2 goals to mandatory Non-CO2 MRV. Scientific consensus shows Non-CO2 effects are ~2/3 of climate impact.

Net Radiative Forcing Breakdown

2. The Supply Gap

📉
Supply Scarcity < 1% Available

The Reality: SAF availability is negligible. Feedstock constraints and "Blend Walls" prevent SAF from solving the non-CO2 crisis today.

2025 Projected Supply vs Demand

3. tLCAF Solution

✈️
Drop-In Ready ASTM D1655

The Bridge: Deep desulfurization & aromatic reduction. A "Clean Fossil" solution that acts as compliance infrastructure immediately.

Aromatics Reduction Potential

First Reporting Deadline: March 31, 2026

Time remaining to validate tLCAF through flight demonstration

-- Days
-- Weeks

The Regulatory Disruption

The paradigm shift from fuel volume to fuel chemistry.

EU 2024/2493 Mandate

  • 01.
    Jan 1, 2025: Monitoring begins. Airlines must track aromatics, sulfur, and trajectory.
  • 02.
    Mar 31, 2026: First verified reports due. This creates an immediate liability for high-aromatic fuel.
  • 03.
    Future State: Inclusion in EU ETS (Emissions Trading System). Non-CO2 effects will have a price tag.
The "Default Value" Trap: If airlines cannot provide primary data (actual fuel specs), NEATS applies punitive default values (25% Aromatics, 3000ppm Sulfur), maximizing their calculated climate impact.

Total Climate Liability Potential

Comparison of Total Climate Impact (CO2 + Non-CO2)

The Supply-Demand Gap

Why SAF cannot solve the immediate compliance crisis.

1. Scarcity

SAF production meets <1% of global demand.

2. Cost Barrier

SAF premiums range from 3x to 13x Jet A-1.

3. The Blend Wall

ASTM D7566 limits SAF to 50%. The rest is dirty fossil.

Strategic Implication: Airlines need a "Bridge Fuel" that is available now, scalable, and solves the non-CO2 problem without requiring 100% renewable feedstock.

The tLCAF Solution

Technical superiority through deep desulfurization.

Performance Matrix

Lab Verified

Sulfur

< 10 ppm

Vs 3000 ppm Default

Aromatics

8.5%

Optimal for Seal Swell

Lubricity

350 µm

Superior Engine Protection

Strategic Roadmap

Path to demonstration and compliance.

Phase 1: Partnership

Q1 2025

Secure airline partner (Virgin/Lufthansa) and finalize funding structure via Innovate UK.

Phase 2: Demonstration

Q3 2025

Critical Milestone: Commercial flight demonstration. Collection of "Primary Data" for NEATS verification. (Please click here for more info.)

Phase 3: Compliance

March 2026

Submission of first verified non-CO2 report. tLCAF established as the industry standard for compliance.